So in Max Brooks’ book World
War Z, which bears nothing in common with movie beyond the title and
zombies in general, he posits an enemy that does not behave by any of the
accepted rules. In most modern warfare,
there is a premise that after a certain amount of attrition, the enemy ceases
to be a threat. We can degrade an
enemies, Command and Control or Logistics support and they will stop being belligerent.
Maybe more importantly, the enemy can be
scared into giving up. In World War Z, the enemy doesn’t behave like
this. The zombies have no Command and
Control. They have no logistics lines. They are each individual fighting forces that
need to be killed in order for them to stop being a threat. The US Military takes a while to figure this
out and suffers some horrific loses along the way. I wonder if ISIS/ISIL is not similar to the
Zombie threat from World War Z.
They claim to be a nation state, a caliphate, but they are not in the traditional
sense. The US is attacking them like a
nation state, but they are not retreating.
They are not collapsing. It is as
if they don’t realize they are out gunned.
Maybe it is that they don’t care.
Each individual ISIS/ISIL member doesn’t need direct Command and Control
to know what to do. They don’t need Logistic
lines to do what they need to do. They are
not scared of the US and its allies. DO
we need to treat ISIS/ISIL like the zombies in World War Z? Do we need to kill them to the last man? Many may argue the answer is “Yes”, but I
would contend that is not the US’ way. The
stated goal is to defeat them, not to wipe them from the face of the
earth. So if they do not react the anticipated
way a Nation State should react to the threat the US and its allies pose, how
do we defeat them? Is ISIS/ISIL is
really nothing more than an overgrow terrorist network and threat, then they
need to be dealt with accordingly. Now
the $1,000,000 question is what is that?
As it can be argued we have failed to effectively deal with a large
terrorist threat for the last 13 years.
I think that I can confidently say a few things. First, until the local population wants them
out, there is little that the US can do.
Sure we need to ensure that those opposed to ISIS/ISIL have the means to
resist. Having been in that part of the
world more than once, getting the arms needed to defeat ISIS/ISIL are readily
available to the local population. If
the US introduces more arms into the region, much of them will end up in
ISIS/ISIL’s hands as they already have.
Second, fighting a conventional war with a proxy force will not
work. It didn’t work in Viet Nam, Afghanistan,
or Iraq. There is no reason to believe that
enough has changed for it to work now.
Third, the more legitimacy that we give ISIS/ISIL by calling them a
Nation State or a direct, credible threat to the US, the more strength we give
them. Marginalizing them on the world
stage is the only way to weaken them in the eyes of their supporters. Remember in World War Z, the zombies
were once part of our supportive, loyal population, but a virus infected them
and they turned on us. Why is the
ISIS/ISISL situation different?
Sunday, October 5, 2014
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